“Our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see more shoppers with a record number of shoppers.”
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay
WASHINGTON, November 17, 2022 – An estimated 166.3 million people plan to shop from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday this year, according to an annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This number is nearly 8 million more people than last year and is the highest since the NRF began tracking this data in 2017.
“While there is much speculation about the impact of inflation on consumer behavior, our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see many record-high shoppers taking advantage of price hikes,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We are optimistic that retail sales will remain strong in the coming weeks, and retailers are ready to meet consumers who want to buy quality products at prices they want to pay.”
According to the survey, more than two-thirds (69%) of holiday shoppers plan to shop on Thanksgiving weekend this year. The top reasons shoppers plan to shop are because deals are too good to pass up (59%), because of tradition (27%) or because it’s something to do (22%) during the holidays.
Black Friday continues to be the most popular shopping day, with 69% (114.9 million) planning to shop then, followed by 38% (63.9 million) on Cyber Monday. Of the 114.9 million Black Friday shoppers, 67% said they expected to go shopping, up from 64% in 2021.
Similar to 2020 and 2021, this year, 60% of holiday shoppers had started browsing and shopping for the season as early as November. This consumer trend of earlier purchases was accelerated by the pandemic. In 2019, 56% of holiday shoppers had started shopping during this time.
“While consumers continue to save the bulk of their holiday shopping for November and December, some of that money has shifted to October,” said Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist. “This year, 18% of holiday shoppers have completed at least half of their holiday shopping. While this is in line with last year, it has only increased by 11% over the last ten years.”
Online searches (43%) remain the most popular source of gift inspiration, followed by friends and family (35%) and in-store (31%). The top five categories of gifts consumers plan to give are clothing (55%), followed by gift cards at 45%, toys at 37%, books/music/movies/video games at 33% and food/candy at 31%.
Gift cards remain a favorite gift, with total spending expected to reach $28.6 billion, compared to $28.1 billion in 2021. Similar to last year, holiday shoppers plan to purchase between three and four gift cards and spend an average of $51.47 per card ($165.87 per person). Consumers are most likely to buy a gift card for a restaurant (27%), a department store (26%) or a gift card issued by a bank (25%). Another program is a 10% gift card purchase for a food delivery service like DoorDash or Uber Eats.
For those shopping for kids, the top toys for boys this year include 1. Lego, 2. Hot Wheels, 3. cars and trucks, 4. PlayStation, 5. video games, 6. Pokémon, 7. Nerf, 8. electric/remote control cars, 9. .dinosaurs, and 10. Xbox. For girls, the top toys are 1. Barbie, 2. doll, 3. LOL dolls, 4. Lego, 5. makeup, 6. Squishmallows, 7. American Girl and clothes (tied), 8. Things related to Disney, 9 . baby doll, and 10. mobile phone and Magic Mixies (tied).
The survey of 7,719 senior consumers was conducted Nov. 1-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 points.
The NRF forecast earlier this month that holiday sales in November and December would grow between 6% and 8% in 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% in 2020 and reached $889.3 billion, breaking previous records. Holiday retail sales are up 4.9% over the past 10 years, and the pandemic spending in recent years has created huge gains.
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail organization, champions the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail grow. From its headquarters in Washington, DC, NRF powers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private sector employer, contributing $3.9 billion to annual GDP and supporting one in four US jobs – 52 million working Americans. For more than 100 years, NRF has been the voice of all retailers and the entire retail profession, educating, promoting and communicating the powerful impact retailing has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in consumer intent data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide globally authoritative market information to US and Chinese consumers with curated insights and statistics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict future consumer behavior to help identify market behavior, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of demand generation campaigns. www.ProsperInsights.com